This is the fourth episode in our series, The Private Company Valuation Forum. The aim of The Private Company Valuation Forum is to offer better insight into how to value private businesses. Hosted by Richard Angus, Head of Business Development at Hardman & Co, with guests Doug Lawson of MarktoMarket and David Little of Bishop and Sewell, this conversation takes a deep dive into the first half of 2025, exploring market trends and insights; they share fresh data and on-the-ground insights into what’s really happening in the market — from shrinking deal sizes and a surge in US tech multiples to the rise of employee ownership trusts. Doug reviews recent trends in SME and mid-market valuations in the UK and the US and, from a legal perspective, David Little discusses the current UK M&A activity.
Doug reports that UK median EV/EBITDA multiples for deals under £250m were stable at 6.2x in H1 2025, in line with H1 2024 but slightly below H2 2024. While revenue multiples have remained steady, the median deal size in the sample has fallen from £12m in 2021–22 to £6.3m this year. Multiples continue to rise with deal size, although the biggest decline was in small cap transactions (£10m–£50m), which fell from 7.7x to 7.3x.
In the US, median multiples were higher at 10.8x, reflecting the inclusion of large cap transactions. Sector performance varied, with TMT valuations rising due to strong software-as-a-service (SaaS) activity. SaaS EBITDA multiples increased from around 20x to 24x, and revenue multiples from 4.4x to 5.6x, driven in part by growth in healthcare software deals. This sector has seen notable activity in the lower mid-market, often with significant contingent consideration elements in deal structures.
David notes that current UK M&A activity is concentrated at the lower end of the market, with larger firms competing for smaller transactions. Larger deals remain constrained by financing challenges and overvaluation, while sellers are showing caution and short-term focus. There has been a rise in employee ownership trusts as an exit route, replacing many management buyouts, while trade sales continue and IPOs are rare. Both speakers noted that while sentiment is currently muted, market conditions can change quickly, and confidence and liquidity could trigger a sharp upturn.
Watch the full discussion to see the trends, the numbers, and what might happen next, and get in touch with Richard if you are interested in finding out more about our corporate valuation work.
