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We noted in,  NB: adding value in attractive co-investment sector, and CM day: 6 November fireworks that NBPE is uniquely focused on the PE co-investment sector. In our view, this sector has appealing return, cashflow, asset selection, risk management, and PE manager access characteristics. Looking forward to 2025, we expect the key themes to be i) growing deal activity, including exits, ii) an increase in the correlation between operating company EBITDA growth and NAV growth, iii) NB’s platform’s unique benefits generating high levels of investment opportunities, and iv) multiple levers for value creation mean that bottom-line return expectations are unchanged.

  • Evidence of value added: We highlight NBPE’s i) growing number of co-investment opportunities (3x the level of 10 years ago, in a slowing market), ii) above-peer investee company revenue and EBITDA growth, iii) broad spread of this growth, and iv) above-average 5-/10-year shareholder returns.
  • NB’s value added to co-investments: NB’s platform is large (NB Private Markets $125bn of active capital commitments, and over 400 PE staff), generating the scale to optimise the co-investment process and deal opportunities. The deal completion rate (ca.8% of opportunities presented) shows great selectivity.
  • Valuation: The 28% discount is in line with direct peers (average 27% exc. HGT). It rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels (10%-15%). We detail in our thematic notes what may lead to a rerating back to these levels. The discount appears to be absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle (including higher for longer interest rates), modest residual listed holdings following 2020-21 IPOs, the duration of the discount and valuation are the key issues for NBPE, as they are across the whole listed PE sector. However, they are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it. The current strategy’s benefits may not be fully appreciated.
  • Investment summary: With 98% of the portfolio invested in direct equity co-investments, NBPE is the most focused listed vehicle in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the long-term, market-beating PE sector. The company and PE manager selection have proved resilient in downturns, and continued premiums on exit should give investors comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified by name, sector, PE manager and geographically, but it has enough concentration for individual investments to add value. The discount is anomalous with long-term, market-beating returns.
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