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In our note, Why the discount has been closing and its outlook, published 15 October, we noted that RECI’s discount had halved over the prior six months. We believe this was due to both actions taken by the trust (active buyback programme, changing asset mix and enhanced disclosure) and more favourable markets. Many of these factors are, in our view, likely to continue in 2025. RECI’s current discount is nearly 15% above the 10-year average. RECI was at an average 2% premium in 2015-19, and traded at a premium again in 2021-22, leaving room for discount narrowing, just by reverting to historical average levels. Multiple director buying has been seen recently.

  • November factsheet: RECI has “a diversified portfolio of 25 investments with a valuation of £309.0m. The Company’s cash balance was £17.9m and net effective leverage was 20.2%. RECI continues to use its cash to invest into new and existing loan commitments and carry out share buybacks.”
  • Outlook: The benefits from RECI’s risk reduction should improve the balance of investors’ risk/reward. The share buyback has recently been renewed at the higher (up to £10m) level. The initial programme was just £5m. Deal activity in the property sector shows participants’ confidence in that market.
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount; currently, it trades at a well-above-average 16% discount. RECI is paying an annualised 12p dividend, generating a yield of 9.7%, which we expect to be covered by recurring net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. Its average LTV is 59.6%, and most loans (inc. all of the top 10) are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Directors and management have demonstrated their confidence in its sustainability through share purchases. Market wide, credit risk is currently above average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers have injected further equity into deals. To date, £9.1m has been completed since August 2023. A new £10m programme was announced on 27 September.
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