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In our view, NBPE’s 1H’25 results may be characterised as turning the corner. There has been a modest improvement in financial performance, the outlook for exits (with expected uplifts to carrying values) has improved and the pipeline of new investments is strong. NBPE’s balance sheet has ample liquidity to take advantage of these opportunities, and its recent focus on mid-life deals means that value creation from these new investments has been rapid. Current performance remains below long-term trends, but a normalisation in exits and strong new investment performance would see more traditional levels of returns generated. We forecast rising gains in 2H’25/2026.

  • Key numbers: June NAV p/sh was $28.14 (£20.53), a $ return of 4.0% in 1H’25. (1.9% increase in private company valuations ex-FX, alongside positive contributions from quoted holdings and foreign exchange). $68m of proceeds received (further $18m received since). $284m of cash and undrawn credit line.
  • Rapid value-add on new deals: NB has been focusing new investment on mid-life co-investments. Typically, it invests after the PE manager has started to make operational improvements. So, we believe the value creation journey has already begun, which shows in the rapid EBITDA growth seen on 2024 deals.
  • Valuation: The 28% discount is wider than most direct peers (average 26% exc. HGT), but it rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels (10%-15%). In this note, we consider what may lead to a reversion to these levels. The discount appears absolutely and relatively anomalous with a resilient, conservative NAV.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle (including higher-for-longer interest rates), modest residual listed holdings following 2020-21 IPOs, the duration of the discount and valuation are the key issues for NBPE, as they are across the whole listed PE sector. However, they are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it. The benefits of the current strategy may not be fully appreciated.
  • Investment summary: NBPE is the most focused listed vehicle in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the long-term, market-beating PE sector. The company and PE manager selection have proved resilient in downturns, and continued premiums on exit should give investors comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified by name, sector, PE manager and geographically but has enough concentration for individual investments to add value. The discount, in our view, is anomalous with long-term, market-beating returns.
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