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The company’s January Presentation reiterated the themes of i) attractive returns from low LTV credit exposure to UK and European commercial real estate assets, ii) quarterly dividends delivering consistently since October 2013, iii) a highly granular book, iv) transparent and conservative leverage, v) access to an established real estate investment team at Cheyne, which manages over $4bn AUM, vi) access to a pipeline of enhanced return investment opportunities identified by Cheyne (11 new deals totalling £152m of commitments since 31 March 2021) and vii) robust mitigation against an environment of rising rates.

  • December Factsheet: NAV as at 31 December 2021 was £1.515 per share, a decrease of 1.7p, after a 3p dividend, i.e. up 1.3p underlying. RECI ’s total NAV return for the 2021 calendar year was 9.6%. The weighted average yield on the portfolio was 10.2%. During the month, RECI committed £51.5m, and funded £7.1m into four new loans.
  • Why rising rates should not hurt RECI: In our note, we explored RECI’s low sensitivity to rising rates by analysing i) borrower revenue and debt sensitivity, ii) RECI’s risk mitigation, iii) the bond portfolio, iv) RECI’s funding mix, v) international diversification), vi) previous share price experience, and vii) upside potential.
  • Valuation: RECI continues its steady recovery from COVID-19 lows, and now trades at a 4.3% premium to NAV, slightly below the five-year, pre-pandemic average. RECI has continued to pay its annualised 12p dividend, generating a dividend yield of 7.6%, which is expected to be covered by earnings.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. Its average loan to value (LTV) is 63%, and most loans are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Management has confirmed no change to dividend policy, showing its confidence in its sustainability. Bond pricing includes a discount, reflecting uncertainty, which should unwind when conditions normalise. Market-wide credit risk is currently above-average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers, to date, have injected further equity into deals.
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