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Our recent notes, in the main, have focused on why RECI should prove resilient in uncertain times, given its credit processes, high-quality security, low exposure to high-risk sectors, diversity and management of problem accounts. Market turbulence has reduced competition, and created upside opportunities. In our latest note, Double tangible security, our property analyst considers the underlying real estate security, and concludes that i) potentially more difficult asset classes are well-underpinned by appropriate LTV ratios, ii) the geography and asset-class profile is good, and iii) that there is strong evidence of RECI’s value-add, for example, with its developer loans.

  • Director buying: In early July, we saw buying by the chair (10k at 123.3p), Colleen McHugh (15k at 123p) and John Hallam (15k at 119.46p). While the amounts are not huge, this is buying in the market by multiple directors. It shows their confidence in both the NAV and outlook for RECI.
  • June 2023 factsheet: The NAV rose by 0.9p, owing to recurring interest income. Cash was £28m, gross leverage £59m, and cost of balance sheet finance 6.4%. The book has 45 positions (30 loans, value £365m, and 15 bonds, fair value £34m). The weighted average LTV is 60%, and the yield is 10.9%.
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount; currently, it trades at a well-above-average 18% discount. RECI is paying an annualised 12p dividend, generating a yield of 9.8%, which we expect to be covered by recurring net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. As noted, its average LTV is 60%, and most loans are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Management has confirmed no change to dividend policy, showing its confidence in its sustainability. Bond pricing includes a discount, reflecting uncertainty, which should unwind when conditions normalise. Marketwide, credit risk is currently above-average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers, to date, have injected further equity into deals.
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