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In our note, 'Positioned for the current crisis', we reviewed how RECI is positioned to face the current market challenges, noting i) the track record of superior credit assessment, monitoring and collection reducing the probability of default, ii) the high quality and high level of security limiting the loss in the event of default, iii) low exposure to high-risk sectors and proven limited loss in the past, iv) proven conservative accounting, and v) income benefits. The latest update noted three major loan repayments, reducing the average LTV by 2.5% in December, re-confirming these messages. There are risks, but the Cheyne team has delivered consistent returns in challenging times in the past.

  • January quarterly update: Key themes are i) attractive returns from low LTV credit exposure to UK and European commercial real estate assets, ii) quarterly dividends delivering consistently since October 2013, iii) a highly granular book, iv) transparent and conservative leverage, and v) access to a strong pipeline.
  • Dec’22 factsheet: The underlying NAV rose 1p, due to recurring interest income (reported NAV down 2p, due to 3p quarterly dividend). Cash was £24m and gross leverage £108m. The book has 60 positions (34 loans, drawn value of £348m, undrawn commitments of £200m, and 26 bonds, £90m). The weighted average LTV is 56%, and the yield is 11.3%.
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount; currently, it trades at a 6% discount, well below mid-2022 peaks. RECI is paying an annualised 12p dividend, generating a yield of 8.6%, and expected to be covered by recurring net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. As noted, its average LTV is 59%, and most loans are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Management has confirmed no change to dividend policy, showing its confidence in its sustainability. Bond pricing includes a discount, reflecting uncertainty, which should unwind when conditions normalise. Market-wide, credit risk is currently above-average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers, to date, have injected further equity into deals.
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