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In our note Putting the discount into perspective we noted that ICGT’s discount, like most of the listed PE sector, is well above historical averages. To put this into perspective, we considered i) the improved risk/reward opportunity this presents to new investors compared with the past, ii) potential misperceptions, noting that in our view, the NAV is realistic and resilient going forward, and iii) how PE managers aim to achieve unchanged target returns despite higher rates. We reviewed how the triggers to a potential re-rating have evolved and are likely to evolve in the near future. While many of these factors apply across the PE industry, we explain how ICGT’s position, portfolio and strategy mean it is uniquely well positioned in this environment.

  • Discount risk/reward: Assuming continued NAV growth at this level, a return to the medium-term average 20% discount increases the five-year return from 103% to 150%. A return to the levels in January 2020 increases the return from 103% to 181%. Over the long term, compounding NAV is the core attraction.
  • Trading update: ICGT’s 3Q update noted i) NAV p/sh 1,959p (31 July 2023: 1,904p), ii) NAV p/sh total return 3.3% in 3Q and 3.8% over the LTM (five-year CAGR 15.4%), iii) portfolio return const. ccy 0.1% (4.8% on an LTM basis, five-year CAGR 17.5%), iv) realisations £39m, investments £29m, v) avg. uplift on exit 33.7%.
  • Valuation: ICGT’s NAV valuations are conservative (realisation uplifts). The ratings are undemanding, and the ongoing carry value against cost is modest. The 37% discount to NAV is anomalous, we believe, with defensive, market-beating returns, and is above the levels seen pre-COVID-19. The 2024E yield is 2.6%.
  • Risks: PE’s post-expense returns are consistently market-beating, but this is an above-average cost model. Even though actual experience has been of continued NAV outperformance in economic downturns, sentiment is likely to be adverse. We believe ICGT’s permanent capital structure is right for unquoted and illiquid assets.
  • Investment summary: ICGT has consistently generated superior returns, by adding value in an attractive market, having a strategic focus on defensive growth and exploiting ICG synergies. Valuations appear conservative, and governance is strong. ICGT focuses on delivering resilient, risk-adjusted returns. The risks are primarily sentiment-driven on costs and cyclicality, and on the underlying assets’ liquidity. It seems anomalous to have a consistent record of outperformance and to trade at a 36% discount to NAV.
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