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We reviewed NBPE’s business model in our initiation, Co-investments generating superior performance. We noted the high secular growth and downside resilience of portfolio companies, the value added by GPs, the positive co-investing cashflow and return profile, along with the value added by the manager, NB. The key theme running through the October CMD was the superior LTM EBITDA growth of its portfolio companies. In 2006, this was 63% of expected value creation, but it has risen to 93% in recent deals. Crucially, target IRRs (20%+ net) are unchanged despite higher interest rates. Two buybacks were conducted in January.

  • Dividend and capital allocation: NB’s 11 January announcement noted i) 1H24 dividend payment of $0.47 p/sh to be paid on 29 February 2024, ii) increase in the existing capital allocation to share buybacks; funds allocated and will remain assigned solely to buybacks, iii) intention to repay the 2024 ZDPs in October 2024.
  • December NAV estimate: NAV p/sh $28.08 (£22.03), +1.4% in the month driven by quoted holdings and positive forex. Private valuations still as at Sep’23 (YTD cons. ccy. private valuations +5.5%). FY’23 realisation proceeds received $171m (further $39m due). Exits at 2.2x MOIC and average 12% uplift.
  • Valuation: The 25% discount is in line with direct peers (average 25%), and it (like peers) rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels. Adjusting for the legacy income investments, the discount rises to 30%. The NAV appears resilient and conservatively valued, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, residual positions in highly rated listed companies following IPOs in 2020-21, the duration of the discount and valuation are the key issues for NBPE, as they are across the whole listed sector. However, they are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it. The benefits from the current strategy may not yet be fully appreciated.
  • Investment summary: With 93% of the portfolio invested in direct equity investments in companies, NBPE is the most focused listed vehicle in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the market-beating PE sector. The company and GP selection have proved resilient in downturns, and consistent, large premiums on exit should give investors comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified by name, sector, GP and geographically, but it has enough concentration for individual investments to add value. The discount, in our view, is anomalous with long-term, market-beating returns.
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