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In 2026, we expect ICGT to continue many of the trends seen in 2025 with continued growth and improved margins from the operating companies. This reflects the improving business models under PE ownership, the core driver to long-term value creation. The exit and investment outlooks are encouraging. We note recent disposals of David Lloyd and Froneri, ICGT’s largest portfolio company. Realisation proceeds FY’26 to date exceed FY’25, with continued uplifts to carrying values. New investment is forecast to accelerate. ICGT has a balanced capital return policy with new investments, a progressive dividend policy and both regular and opportunistic buyback programmes. ICGT’s outlook is here.

  • New investments: ICGT continues to see attractive new opportunities. Direct and secondary investments have recently been the majority of the total new investments, reflecting the flexibility in ICGT’s model to control cash in an uncertain environment and its broad access to the whole PE market.
  • Long term: Over five years, ICGT’s constant-currency CAGR portfolio return was 17.4%, and the NAV p/sh. total return 14.5%. The return consistency generates compounding benefits. Shareholder return was 16.5% (narrower discount) and ICGT is one of ca.10% of ITs that are “ISA-millionaire” investments.
  • Valuation: ICGT’s NAV valuations are conservative (regular realisation uplifts). The ratings are undemanding, and the ongoing carry value against cost is modest. The 27% discount to NAV is anomalous, we believe, with defensive, market-beating returns, and is above the levels seen pre COVID-19. The 2026E yield is 2.6%.
  • Risks: PE’s post-expense returns are consistently market-beating, but this is an above-average cost model. Even though actual experience has been of continued NAV outperformance in economic downturns, sentiment is likely to be adverse. We believe ICGT’s permanent capital structure is right for unquoted and illiquid assets.
  • Investment summary: ICGT has consistently generated superior returns, by adding value in an attractive market, having a strategic focus on defensive growth and exploiting ICG synergies. Valuations appear conservative, and governance is strong. ICGT focuses on delivering resilient, risk-adjusted returns. The risks are primarily sentiment-driven on costs and cyclicality, and on the liquidity of the underlying assets. It seems anomalous, in our view, to have a consistent record of outperformance and to trade at a 27% discount to NAV.
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