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In our latest note, 'Looking at the current opportunities', we explored the opportunities that current conditions present. We noted i) improving yields on new business, helped by the relatively short duration of the book, and ii) improving covenants. As competitors with weaker balance sheets, less focused business models, higher capital requirements and worse historical loss experiences withdraw, so RECI can cherry-pick higher risk-return opportunities. RECI’s credit processes, high-quality security, diversity, problem-account resolution and low exposure to high-risk sectors give it resilience. Its flexibility is shown by the reduction in bond positions in March 2023.

  • January quarterly update: Key themes are i) attractive returns from low LTV credit exposure to UK and European commercial real estate assets, ii) quarterly dividends delivering consistently since October 2013, iii) a highly granular book, iv) transparent and conservative leverage, and v) access to a strong pipeline.
  • Mar’23 factsheet: The underlying NAV fell 0.6p, due to recurring interest income (1.1p) and negative MTM effects (-1.7p). Cash was £17m, and gross leverage £81m. The book has 53 positions – 34 loans (drawn value £315m) and 19 bonds (Feb’23 25)
    (gross fair value £49m). The weighted average LTV is 59%, and the portfolio yield is 11.1%.
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount; currently, it trades at an above- average 11% discount. RECI is paying an annualised 12p dividend, generating a yield of 8.9%, which we expect to be covered by recurring net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. As noted, its average LTV is 57%, and most loans are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Management has confirmed no change to dividend policy, showing its confidence in its sustainability. Bond pricing includes a discount, reflecting uncertainty, which should unwind when conditions normalise. Market-wide, credit risk is currently above-average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers, to date, have injected further equity into deals.
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