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In our latest note, Update on: NAV, capital, Trump and interest rates, we updated investors on i) the latest NAV/portfolio, ii) NBPE’s revised capital allocation framework, iii) the potential impact of current Trump polices, and iv) the impact of interest rate expectations, which seem to evolve daily but which, in our view, have seen a trend of higher-for-longer forecasts. The underlying message is that PE, and NBPE, reacts dynamically to changing conditions and has outperformed across a range of environments. We highlighted, in CM day: 6 November fireworks, i) positive market trends, ii) NB’s platform unique benefits, and iii) multiple levers for value creation.

  • $120m buyback pool: On 19 February, NBPE announced an increased three-year buyback pool of $120m. The company balances new investments (currently, 104% NAV invested), dividends (2025 expectation of 47c ($43m)) and now an increased pool for buybacks. This follows shareholder discussions.
  • NBPE’s co-investment model: Facing 2024 challenges, NBPE’s unique approach has created i) a strong balance sheet, ii) cashflow flexibility, iii) a portfolio ready for material realisations as things open up, iv) North American domestic/mid-market buyout focus, and v) new investments performing strongly.
  • Valuation: The 29% discount is slightly better than direct peers (average 34% exc. HGT). It rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels (10%-15%). We detail, in our thematic notes, what may lead to a rerating back to these levels. The discount appears to be absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle (including higher-for-longer interest rates), modest residual listed holdings following 2020-21 IPOs, the duration of the discount and valuation are the key issues for NBPE, as they are across the whole listed PE sector. However, they are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it. The current strategy’s benefits may not be fully appreciated.
  • Investment summary: NBPE is the most focused listed vehicle in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the long-term, market-beating PE sector. The company and PE manager selection have proved resilient in downturns, and continued premiums on exit should give investors comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified by name, sector, PE manager and geographically, but has enough concentration for individual investments to add value. The discount is anomalous with long-term, market-beating returns.
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