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The key takeaways from NBPE’s 6 November CM day, in our view, were i) positive market indications, including exits and an increase in the correlation between operating company EBITDA growth and NAV growth, ii) NB’s platform brings unique benefits: accessing deals, analysing investment opportunities, and GP relationships,  (which have generated a big increase in opportunities presented to them, even when the overall market slowed), and iii) multiple levers for value creation mean that bottom-line return expectations are unchanged. How it will be delivered has evolved, with a greater focus on operational growth rather than multiple expansion/financial leverage.

  • Agenda: After the Chairman’s introduction, there were presentations covering i) an update on the PE environment, ii) co-investments at NB: leveraging GP relationships, iii) PE outlook: US election and its impact on PE Markets and NBPE, and iv) NBPE portfolio review.
  • NBPE value proposition: The Chair’s closing comments highlighted i) access to 51 premier PE managers and in co-investments, the “holy grail” of PE investing, ii) an attractive returns track record, iii) leveraging NB’s $115bn+ PE platform, iv) capital deployment control, v) global investing, and vi) fee efficiency.
  • Valuation: The 23% discount is slightly lower than most direct peers (average 26%, exc. HGT), but it rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels (10%-15%). In this note, we review what may lead to a reversion to these levels. The discount appears absolutely and relatively anomalous with a resilient, conservative NAV.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, residual positions in highly rated listed companies following IPOs in 2020-21, the duration of the discount and valuation are the key issues for NBPE, as they are across the whole listed sector. In our view, they are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it. The benefits from the current strategy may not yet be fully appreciated.
  • Investment summary: With 98% of the portfolio invested in direct equity, co-investments, NBPE is the most focused listed vehicle in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the market-beating PE sector. The company and GP selection have proved resilient in downturns, and consistent premiums on exit should give investors comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified by name, sector, GP, geography and size, but it has enough concentration for individual investments to add value. The discount is anomalous with long-term, market-beating returns.
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