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In our recent note, Update on: NAV, capital, Trump and interest rates (18 March), we updated investors on i) the latest NAV/portfolio, ii) NBPE’s revised capital allocation framework, iii) the potential impact of current Trump polices, and iv) the impact of interest rate expectations, which seem to evolve daily but which, in our view, have seen a trend of higher-for-longer forecasts. The underlying message is that PE, and NBPE, reacts dynamically to changing conditions and has outperformed across a range of environments. We highlighted, in CM day: 6 November fireworks, i) positive market trends, ii) NB platform unique benefits, and iii) multiple levers for value creation.

  • 17 April tariff update: NBPE’s update (presentation available here) noted “We believe that only 14% of the portfolio’s fair value could be directly impacted by tariffs, with approximately 1% of fair value likely to be meaningfully impacted.” More detail is given in the presentation.
  • 2024 results: New information in the results was i) five-year gross investment IRR 18%, ii) average five-year exit uplift 33.3%, iii) portfolio companies average LTM revenue growth 8.1% and EBITDA growth 12.1%, and iv) average EV/EBITDA 15.3x and debt/EBITDA 5.3x.
  • Valuation: The 33% discount is slightly better than direct peers (average 36% exc. HGT). It rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels (10%-15%). We detail in our thematic notes what could lead to a rerating back to these levels. The discount appears to be absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle (including higher-for-longer interest rates), modest residual listed holdings following 2020-21 IPOs, the duration of the discount and valuation are the key issues for NBPE, as they are across the whole listed PE sector. However, they are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it. The current strategy’s benefits may not be fully appreciated.
  • Investment summary: NBPE is the most focused listed vehicle in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the long-term, market-beating PE sector. The company and PE manager selection have proved resilient in downturns, and continued premiums on exit should give investors comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified by name, sector, PE manager and geographically, but has enough concentration for individual investments to add value. The discount is anomalous with long-term, market-beating returns.
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