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In our note of 5 August 2022, Marks taken in uncertainty, released thereafter, we outlined our view that the market was applying a broad-brush approach to risk, and giving insufficient credit to RECI’s superior control assessment, monitoring and restructuring systems. We have outlined in previous reports, and again in the note of 5 August, the factors investors should consider in deciding whether RECI’s approach means that it will, once again, show superior resilience against inflation and interest-rate increases, as well as the economic risks that are currently driving weaker markets and the recent widening in the discount to levels not seen since early 2021.

  • What happens when things go wrong? We have highlighted, in the past, the importance of risk assessment to eventual loss and what RECI does well there. Investors should also focus on what happens when things go wrong. What RECI did through COVID-19 with loans restructuring, security enforcement, etc, should give investors great comfort.
  • August factsheet update: The underlying NAV rose 0.9p (0.6%), due primarily to recurring interest income. RECI had cash of £38m and gross leverage of £110m. The book has 62 positions (36 loans, drawn value of £342m, undrawn commitments of £182m and 26 bonds). The weighted average LTV is 61%, and yield is 10.3%.
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a small discount. It trades at an 8.7% discount currently, a level not seen since March 2021. RECI paid its annualised 12p dividend in FY’22, which generated a yield of 8.9% ‒ expected to be covered by net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. As noted, its average LTV is 61%, and most loans are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Management has confirmed no change to dividend policy, showing its confidence in its sustainability. Bond pricing includes a discount, reflecting uncertainty, which should unwind when conditions normalise. Market-wide, credit risk is currently above-average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers, to date, have injected further equity into deals.
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