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In our note, The rise of private credit: threats and opportunities, published 20 February, we noted that one of the key trends in global financing markets has been the rise of private credit. We considered the implications for RECI. On the upside, i) its business model is reconfirmed by the disintermediation of banks, ii) this should be positive for sentiment, and iii) most of RECI’s competitive advantages relative to banks also apply to private credit funds. On the downside, we note i) competition will increase marginally, as RECI is in a niche position where private credit is unlikely to be active, and ii) credit losses in large private credit funds are likely to adversely affect sentiment.

  • Why private credit is growing: Private credit gives borrowers an alternative and guaranteed source of funding. Investors get an illiquidity (and often intellectual capital) premium, floating rate instruments, and a targeted, diversified portfolio with specialist expertise managing risks. All these factors apply to RECI.
  • January factsheet: RECI has “in a diversified portfolio of 22 investments with a valuation of £299.1m. The Company’s cash balance was £23.6m and net effective leverage was 18.5%.” The weighted average yield is 10.1% and current loan to value 65%. Interest income in the month was 1.1p p/sh. (div. 3p per quarter).
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount; currently, it trades at a well-above-average 14% discount. RECI is paying an annualised 12p dividend, generating a yield of 9.6%, which we expect to be covered by recurring net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. Its average LTV is 65%, and most loans (inc. all of the top 10) are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Directors and management have demonstrated their confidence in its sustainability through share purchases. Market wide, credit risk is currently above average, although rating agencies expect defaults to reduce in 2025, and RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers have injected further equity into deals. A new £10m share buyback programme was announced on 27 September.
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