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In our note, The rise of private credit: threats and opportunities,  we noted that one of the key trends in global financing markets has been the rise of private credit. We considered the implications for RECI. On the upside, i) its business model is reconfirmed by the disintermediation of banks, ii) it should be positive for sentiment, and iii) most of RECI’s competitive advantages relative to banks also apply to private credit funds. On the downside, we note i) competition will increase, marginally as RECI is in a niche position where private credit is unlikely to be active, and ii) credit losses in large private credit funds are likely to adversely affect sentiment.

  • Further buyback programme: On 31 March, RECI rolled over its expiring buyback programme. The new programme will run to 30 September 2025, with the aggregate purchase price of all shares acquired to be no greater than £10m. On 8 April, 200k shares were bought, at 120p. Liquidity can be limited.
  • March factsheet: RECI has “a diversified portfolio of 21 investments with a valuation of £292.2m. The Company’s available cash was £25.6m and net effective leverage was 16.2%” The weighted average yield is 11.4% (January 10.1%) and current LTV 66%. February interest income was 1.1p p/sh. (dividend 3p per quarter).
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount; currently, it trades at a well-above-average 13% discount. RECI is paying an annualised 12p dividend, generating a yield of 9.6%, which we expect to be covered by recurring net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. Its average LTV is 66%, and most loans (inc. all of the top 10) are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Directors and management have demonstrated their confidence in its sustainability through share purchases. Market wide, credit risk is currently above average, although rating agencies expect defaults to reduce in 2025, and RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers have injected further equity into deals. A rolling series of six-monthly buybacks, of up to £10m, has been seen.
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