In this note, we review China’s economic outlook and, in particular, we put the well-publicised COVID-19-related lockdowns into a relative global perspective. The IMF’s July forecast saw China’s real GDP forecasts cut by 1.1% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023. With further lockdowns since, there is risk on the downside. However, the 2023 GDP cuts were a fifth of those seen in the US/Euro area, China’s 2023 forecast growth is ca.4x their level, and market ratings are below both. Also, investors should consider what policy responses may result. As a geared play, with some whole-market exposure, FCSS has suffered from market sentiment, even though its stock selection has added value.
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