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In our note, 'Outperformance by adding value to companies', we highlighted that the 2022 results reconfirmed AGA’s core strengths, notably i) revenue and EBITDA growth of 21.5% and 18.5%, respectively – well ahead of the market and showing that Apax enhances its investments’ operational performances, ii) a 15% uplift on exits, proving conservative accounting and that the NAV is real, iii) a -7.4% NAV return, driven largely by the fall in the rating multiples of the listed holdings (these companies have already delivered 3.4x money on invested capital), and iv) the Derived Investments portfolio delivered diversified, more stable returns, and generated cash to pay the dividend. We expect more of the same in the 1Q results (due 4 May).

  • Market news flow: Looking across several listed PE fund monthly and quarterly announcements, the message we take is that constant currency valuations have been broadly stable over the past few months. There have been continued realisations at material premiums to carrying value in APAX’s resilient sectors,
  • Other 2022 highlights: i) the EV/EBITDA ratio was 17.2x, in line with the underlying average for 2017-21 (the resulting PEG ratio is 0.9x); ii) the dividend yield of 7.0% makes AGA attractive, we believe, to both capital and income funds; iii) the debt/EBITDA ratio was 4.8x; and iv) over-commitment remains very modest.
  • Valuation: Listed holdings and Derived Investments mean that ca.40% of Apax’s portfolio is marked to market. Adjusting for the debt portfolio at par, AGA’s discount to NAV of 28% rises to 41%, giving a PE portfolio well above that of its peers (26%-36%). The NAV appears resilient to slowdowns. The 2023E yield is 8.3%.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and over-commitment are sector issues. Residual positions in highly rated stocks, following 2020-21 IPOs, saw exposures to underperforming 2022 names, recognising that value was extracted on the IPOs. The Derived Investments portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at over 20% below peer ratings, accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated businesses at a ca.10% premium, is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Derived Investments portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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