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In our note, French and German exposures in perspective, published 27 February, we noted RECI’s approach to its French operations (25% of the portfolio) was unchanged from our note, Vive la difference (15 February 2022). Following the December 2023 factsheet unrealised hit of 1.6p to the NAV from a prime Grade A Paris office exposure, we thought we would review them again. In addition, with the November Factsheet 1.1p NAV hit from a legacy Berlin mezzanine position, we also looked at the de minimis German exposure. The unrealised losses were not expected, but our note showed RECI’s prudent accounting and portfolio resilience.

  • Conservative approach: Our note, Marks taken in uncertainty, released thereafter, highlighted RECI’s record of taking MTM hits in periods of uncertainty, only to be followed by subsequent releases. This conservative accounting is on top of robust risk assessment, monitoring, problem account management and portfolio diversification.
  • Director buying: The Chair showed his confidence in the trust’s NAV and outlook with a further purchase of shares in the market (10,000 on 16 February at 120.64p). On 19 February, a further buyback was conducted (750,000 shares at 120.5p), which, in our view, demonstrates that the company views its shares as attractive at that price.
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount; currently, it trades at a well-above-average 17% discount. RECI is paying an annualised 12p dividend, generating a yield of 10%, which we expect to be covered by recurring net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. Its average LTV is 60.3%, and most loans (including all the top 10) are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Management has demonstrated its confidence in its sustainability. Bond pricing includes a discount, reflecting uncertainty, which should unwind when conditions normalise. Market wide, credit risk is currently above average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers, to date, have injected further equity into deals. An up to £5m share buyback programme was announced on 31 August 2023, with 2.4m shares bought back to date.
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