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The key message from the 1Q results was continued superior EBITDA growth (18%); in our view, rebutting the bear arguments that the PE story is over in a higher-rate environment. Total NAV return in 1Q’24 was -0.5%, driven by Vyaire (see below). AGA deployed ca.€23m in PE investments on a look-through basis with a further €62m deployed since the quarter-end. There were four new investments and two transformational add-on acquisitions for existing investments. The unique debt portfolio, saw a total return of 3.5% in 1Q’24. The board is reassessing its capital allocation policy and more details will be given at the 26 June CM Day (register here).

  • Other highlights: The PE portfolio is balanced across Apax Fund vintages, with 40% in the investing phase, 38% in the maturity phase, and 22% in the harvesting phase. Listed exposure in the PE portfolio is now just 4%. AGA’s invested portfolio was split: 76% in PE; 22% in Debt Investments; 2% equity.
  • Vyaire impact: Following materially deteriorating trading at Vyaire (website here) during 1Q’24, AGA has taken a €24m writedown on its value across the PE and Debt portfolios, reducing AGA’s PE exposure to Vyaire to ca.€5m and Debt exposure to Vyaire’s first lien loan to €12m.
  • Valuation: AGA’s discount to NAV (30%) is at the upper-end of the peers’ range (4%-29%) and rises further by excluding the Debt Investments at their market value. Apax Funds continue to see exit uplifts, and the NAV is resilient to economic downturns, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and overcommitment are sector issues. The single writedown in 1Q’24 reminds investors of the potential volatility in PE returns. The Debt portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (24%), accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium to those same peers (11% premium), is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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