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As noted in our reports, CM day: further proof of value added by Apax and 1H’24: deal activity coming back strongly, the stock of exit-able businesses is rebuilding at a time when market demand is returning. Apax Funds appear to have turned the corner, and both exit and investment activity is steadily rebuilding to more normal levels. The growth in exits in 2025 should assist i) NAV growth, with a greater correlation between EBITDA growth and NAV growth, ii) cashflows, iii) sentiment, and iv) as a result, the discount to NAV. In our view, the growing investments, with the operational improvements that Apax then delivers, are key drivers to long-term outperformance.

  • Rising stock of exit-able opportunities: Apax used the 2020-21 high valuations to exit a lot of its investments. Businesses ready for sale have been rebuilt and now 37% of the portfolio is in harvesting phase versus 17% at end-2021. Uplifts on exits continue (3Q’24: 10%). We expect further exits to help the NAV grow.
  • Refilling the barrel: 2H’24 alone saw deal announcements including Zellix (AGA investment €36m), Altus Fire & Life Safety (€12m), GreytHR (€3m), Veriforce (€29m), Thoughtworks (€27m), and Evelyn Partners (€28m). We expect further 2025 investments, creating multiple options for long-term value creation.
  • Valuation: AGA’s discount to NAV (31%) is at the upper end of the peers’ range (3% premium to 28% discount) and rises further by excluding the MTM of the Debt portfolio. Apax Funds overall continue to see exit uplifts and the NAV is resilient to economic downturns, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and overcommitment are sector issues. A single writedown, in 1H’24, reminds investors of the potential volatility in PE returns. The Debt portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (24%), accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium to those same peers (11% premium), is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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