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The key messages from the 5 March results are i) continued superior revenue and EBITDA growth, ii) unique franchise delivering deals, iii) 20% exit uplifts, evidencing a conservative NAV, and iv) diversification benefit of the unique Debt Investments portfolio. AGA has a balanced capital allocation policy, giving shareholders both income (via 5% of NAV in dividends) and growth (through ongoing investment). Green shoots of activity continue to convert into deals ‒ in April alone, APAX Funds made two new investments. We also saw director buying, reflective of their confidence. AGA will host a CM Day on 26 June 2024 (registration available here).

  • New investments: On a look-through basis, AGA is investing €36m in Zellis Group (provider of payroll and HR software to UK and Irish customers and an emerging leader in the global benefits administration software market) and €8m in IANS (tech-enabled research and advisory services in information security).
  • Director dealings: On 4 April, we saw purchases by both the Karl Sternberg (chair designate) and Susan Breedon (wife of current Chair). In our view, buying by multiple directors is a sign of confidence in the business and their view that the price is an attractive one.
  • Valuation: AGA’s discount to NAV (37%) is at the upper-end of the peers’ range (6%-31%) and rises further by excluding the Debt Investments at their market value. Apax Funds continue to see exit uplifts, and the NAV is resilient to economic downturns, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and overcommitment are sector issues. Residual positions in highly rated stocks, following 2020-21 IPOs, saw exposures to underperforming 2022 names, recognising that value was extracted on the IPOs. The Debt portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (24%), accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium to those same peers (11% premium), is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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