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We reviewed AGA’s recent interim results in our 25 September note, Resilience in face of rising interest rates. The results reconfirmed AGA’s core strengths, notably i) Apax enhances the operational performance of the funds’ investments ‒ LTM revenue and EBITDA growth of 16.0% and 14.1%, respectively, are, we believe, ahead of the market, albeit slowing in 2Q, ii) a 24% uplift on exits, proving conservative accounting and that the NAV is realistic, iii) a 2.4% NAV return, with the five-year 12.4% annualised return, and iv) the Debt portfolio proved its worth, with diversified, more stable returns, and generating cash to pay the dividend. We expect the 9 November 3Q results to show similar resilience, albeit somewhat slower revenue and EBITDA growth.

  • New Chair designate: On 2 October Apax announced the appointed of Karl Sternberg as a non-executive Director and a member of its audit committee, with effect from 1 March 2024. It is intended that he become Chairman of Apax Global Alpha in 2H’24, allowing for an appropriate handover period.
  • Investment in Bazooka Candy Brands: On a look-through basis AGA is investing ca.€16.6m in this company, which is a top-10 manufacturer in the non-chocolate confectionary category and holds a leading share position in ‘front of store sales’, a coveted, high-margin segment for retailers. 80% of sales are US.
  • Valuation: Listed holdings and debt mean that ca.25% of Apax’s portfolio is marked to market. Adjusting for the debt portfolio at par, AGA’s discount to NAV (31%) rises to 45%, well above the peers’ range (22%-39%) on its PE portfolio alone. The NAV appears resilient, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and over-commitment are sector issues. Residual positions in highly rated stocks, following 2020-21 IPOs, saw exposures to underperforming 2022 names, recognising that value was extracted on the IPOs. The Debt portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (ca.20%), accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium to those same peers (ca.10% premium), is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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