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Our note, CM day: further proof of value added by Apax, highlighted the key messages from APAX’s well-received 2024 CM day and related announcements: i) a new capital allocation policy with a set 11p dividend and creation of a distribution pool for future buybacks (if the discount is above 23%) or special dividends ‒ €30m has been seeded into pool and buybacks started; ii) the value added by the four-sector hidden gems strategy of buying businesses with unrealised potential at a discount, improving them and then selling at a premium; and iii) the stock of exit-able businesses is growing after above-average exits in 2020-21. The interim results are on 5 September.

  • Thoughtworks: On 6 August, Apax announced Thoughtworks was being taken private by Apax Funds at a ca.55% uplift to the carrying value of the holding AGA had via Apax IX. The 12 August update noted AGA’s stake was valued at ca.€54m (half in Apax IX and half in Apax XI). Proceeds to date have been €73m.
  • Buybacks: Having announced the €30m distribution pool at end-June, AGA has been active most days in August. The latest announcement notes 658k shares have been bought back since then, now held in Treasury. Our forecasts assume an acceleration through the rest of 2024, noting limited daily liquidity.
  • Valuation: AGA’s discount to NAV (30%) is above peers (highest peer 26%). It rises further by excluding the Debt Investments at their market value. Apax Funds continue to see exit uplifts, and the NAV is resilient to economic downturns, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and overcommitment are sector issues. The single writedown in 1Q’24 reminds investors of the potential volatility in PE returns. The Debt portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (24%), accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium to those same peers (11% premium), is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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