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In our initiation note, Making pearls out of oysters, we noted AGA mainly invests in Apax PE funds. They acquire private companies, whose performance is then transformed by Apax’s global insights and operational expertise. On average, investee company EBITDA growth accelerates by 15%, and margins improve by 8%. They become more valuable, and, on sale, their relative multiple is typically ca.30% higher than on purchase. Repeating this playbook in four sectors with resilient, secular growth has given investors market-beating returns since IPO. Exit uplifts prove a conservative NAV, and AGA’s strong outperformance through downturns show its resilience. The discount is 30%.

  • Dec’22 fund valuations: In 4Q, the largest funds saw low to mid-single-digit rises like-for-like changes (€ changes: 5% fall for Fund X, 7% fall for Fund IX and 15% fall for Fund XIII, excluding gain on sale of Duck Creek Technologies on 13 January). Apax Digital saw a 2% dollar rise and Digital II a 5% dollar fall.
  • Credit facility update and investment in Magaya: The undrawn €250m credit facility has reverted to a standard fixed-term line, expiring on 10 January 2025. New opportunities continue, with AGA also announcing that, on a look-through basis, ca.€6.8mE will invest in Magaya. a digital freight software platform.
  • Valuation: Adjusting for the debt portfolio, AGA’s discount to NAV (30%) widens to an above-peer (43%) on its PE portfolio alone. This (like peers) rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels. The NAV appears resilient and conservative, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous. The 2023E yield is 9.0%.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and over-commitment are sector issues. Residual positions in highly rated stocks, following 2020-21 IPOs, saw exposures to underperforming 2022 names, recognising that value was extracted on the IPOs. The Derived Investments portfolio generates income towards dividends and has liquidity/capital benefits but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at over 20% below peer ratings, accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a ca.10% premium, is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Derived Investments portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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