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NBPE’s 2026 outlook was discussed at its recent CMD (see our note 2025 CMD: good returns from low-risk PE model). We highlighted i) the high-quality portfolio (strong underlying operating performance, particularly among larger positions), ii) it is well positioned for improving exits in FY’26, iii) balance sheet strength (with flexibility to both increase investment in new opportunities and return capital to shareholders, iv) optimal access via co-investments (NB’s differentiated platform providing efficient access to attractive opportunities), and v) an attractive investment pipeline (focus on mid-life co-investments where companies are already in the value-creation phase).

  • Attractive returns: NB’s base-case deal IRRs have been stable for many years. Accelerating revenue and margin growth, the majority of the return, are under management control. Co-investments, typically, are fee-free, and double due diligence is conducted. NB is selective in its deals, focusing on secular growth.
  • Capital allocation: The updated capital allocation framework announced an acceleration of the share buyback programme, an increased allocation to new investments and a maintained dividend. This allocation reflects the flexibility of the model, strength of the balance sheet and improved exit environment.
  • Valuation: The 33% discount is in line with direct peers (average 32% inc. HGT). In our thematic notes, we have considered what may lead to a reversion to historical levels (10%-15%). The discount appears absolutely and relatively anomalous with a resilient, conservative NAV.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle (including higher-for-longer interest rates), the duration of the discount and valuation are the key issues for NBPE, as they are across the listed PE sector. They are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it. The strategy’s benefits may not be fully recognised.
  • Investment summary: NBPE is uniquely focused in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the long-term, market-beating PE sector. It has proved resilient in downturns, and premiums on exit give comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified but has enough concentration for conviction holdings to add value. The discount appears anomalous with market-beating returns.
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