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In our latest report, 2024: short-term noise over long-term growth (12 May 2025), we noted that, like many in the PE space, NBPE’s 2024 total $ NAV return (1.5%) was below the five-year average (11.0%), driven by falling valuations of listed holdings and forex. The private company growth (6.9% constant currency) was also below average, with lower-than-usual exit uplift benefit. In our view, 2024 was noise within a long-term value-creation model. Despite challenges, the past 12-month investee company EBITDA growth was a strong 12%. NBPE has cash and credit facilities totalling $283m, and minimal fund commitments, so it can flexibly take new investment opportunities.

  • Medium-term performance: Over five years to end-March 2025, NBPE has delivered i) an 18% gross IRR on direct investments, ii) 2.4x multiple of cost on realisations, iii) 33% average exit uplift to carrying value (inc. the strong 2021). These results, and the EBITDA growth, give investors a good view of NBPE.
  • Managing long-term opportunities: The NB platform saw an increasing number of co-investment opportunities (2024 11.8 per week vs. 3.6 in 2015), and NBPE has the liquidity to pursue these opportunities. The strong EBITDA growth is indicative of the value creation by PE managers after acquisition.
  • Valuation: The 32% discount is slightly better than direct peers (average 34% exc. HGT). It rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels (10%-15%). We detail in our thematic notes what may lead to a rerating back to these levels. The discount appears to be absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle (including higher-for-longer interest rates), modest residual listed holdings following 2020-21 IPOs, the duration of the discount and valuation are the key issues for NBPE, as they are across the whole listed PE sector. However, they are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it. The current strategy’s benefits may not be fully appreciated.
  • Investment summary: NBPE is the most focused listed vehicle in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the long-term, market-beating PE sector. The company and PE manager selection have proved resilient in downturns, and continued premiums on exit should give investors comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified by name, sector, PE manager and geographically, but has enough concentration for individual investments to add value. The discount is anomalous with long-term, market-beating returns.
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