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NBPE’s end-June 2026 results saw an acceleration in i) investee companies’ EBITDA growth (avg. 12% vs. 10% end-2025) is, we believe, the key driver to long-term value creation, ii) realisations – NBPE expects FY’26 to be at least 18% opening NAV vs. three-year average 13.5%, iii) investments – previous FY’26 guidance $100m+; to June, NBPE completed $104m, with a further $60m signed, iv) buybacks/dividends ‒ $144m returned YTD vs. $62m for same 2025 period. NBPE’s exit-ready mature portfolio and multiple market dynamics are favourable to realisations. In our view, a major factor, potentially closing the discount.

  • Realisations outlook: Medium-term realisations look likely to be strong, with a mature exit-ready portfolio, industry-wide dry powder, GPs seeking liquidity, and AI efficiency gains meaning more deals hit hurdle returns. A 2024 investment has been exited, showing the benefit of mid-life co-investment.
  • Buybacks: In June 2026, NBPE allocated a further $120m to buybacks (total allocation $240m since the beginning of 2025). Of this, $164m has been deployed, repurchasing a total of 8.3m shares at a weighted average discount of 28%, adding $1.55 per share to NAV, or 5.6%.
  • Valuation: The 29% discount is below direct peers (average 34% inc. HGT). In our thematic notes, we have looked at what may lead to a reversion to what we consider a more sustainable historical level (10%-15%). The discount appears anomalous with a resilient, conservative NAV and peers.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle (incl. higher-for-longer interest rates), realisation volatility, the duration of the discount and potential AI disruption to software businesses are all issues for NBPE, as they are across the listed PE sector. They are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it.
  • Investment summary: NBPE is uniquely focused in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the long-term, market-beating PE sector. It has proved resilient in downturns, and premiums on exit give comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified but has enough concentration for conviction holdings to add value. The discount appears anomalous with market-beating returns.
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