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The key issues from NBPE’s results (reviewed in our note 2025 results: looking to future realisations) continue to apply. Investee companies’ operating performance is resilient; in our view, the key driver to long-term value creation. NBPE’s portfolio is mature, and multiple market dynamics are favourable to realisations in the medium term, with quarterly noise around global uncertainties. The Aug. update presentation, inter alia, noted YTD average co-investment opportunities originated per week had risen to 14.6 vs. 2025: 13.1, and 2021: 8. 2H div held at $0.47, as expected. Buybacks have been seen on a near daily basis – see here.

  • Realisations outlook: Medium-term realisations look likely to be strong, with a mature exit-ready portfolio, industry-wide dry powder, GPs seeking liquidity, AI efficiency gains meaning more deals may hit hurdle returns, and new exit options. Short term, there may be noise, with both weak and strong quarters.
  • July update: YTD $ NAV TR LTM 4%, £ 2%. GB S/P TR LTM +8% (despite a 4% drop YTD). Available liquidity $187m. YTD realisations $89m, investments $98m new, $10m follow-on. Investment level 112%. Unfunded commits. $38m. Investing alongside 48 managers with 95% of portfolio in top 50 names.
  • Valuation:  The 28% discount is slightly below direct peers (average 31% inc. HGT). In our thematic notes, we have looked at what may lead to a reversion to what we consider a more sustainable historical level (10%-15%). The discount appears anomalous with a resilient, conservative NAV and peers.
  • Risks:  Sentiment to costs, the cycle (incl. higher-for-longer interest rates), realisation volatility, the duration of the discount and potential AI disruption to software businesses are all issues for NBPE, as they are across the listed PE sector. They are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it.
  • Investment summary:  NBPE is uniquely focused in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the long-term, market-beating PE sector. It has proved resilient in downturns, and premiums on exit give comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified but has enough concentration for conviction holdings to add value. The discount appears anomalous with market-beating returns.

 

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