×

In our note, Why the discount has been closing and its outlook, published 15 October, we noted that RECI’s discount had halved over the prior six months. We believe this was due to both actions taken by the trust (active buyback programme, changing asset mix and enhanced disclosure) and more favourable markets. Many of these factors are, in our view, likely to continue in 2025. RECI’s current discount is nearly 15% above the 10-year average. RECI was at an average 2% premium in 2015-19, and traded at a premium again in 2021-22, leaving room for discount narrowing, just by reverting to historical average levels. Multiple director buying has been seen recently.

  • December factsheet: RECI has “in a diversified portfolio of 22 investments with a valuation of £297.6m. The Company’s cash balance was £32.2m and net effective leverage was 15.3%.” The weighted average yield is 10.2% and current loan to value 66%. Interest income in the month was 0.9p p/sh. (div. 3p per quarter).
  • Director share buying: We believe that directors buying shares in the market is one of the most positive indicators of their confidence in the company. On 20 December 2024, Susie Farnon bought 12k shares. This follows the 28 November purchase of 8k shares by Colleen McHugh.
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount; currently, it trades at a well-above-average 15% discount. RECI is paying an annualised 12p dividend, generating a yield of 9.7%, which we expect to be covered by recurring net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. Its average LTV is 59.6%, and most loans (inc. all of the top 10) are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Directors and management have demonstrated their confidence in its sustainability through share purchases. Market wide, credit risk is currently above average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers have injected further equity into deals. To date, £9.1m has been completed since August 2023. A new £10m programme was announced on 27 September.
Download the full report

Request a meeting

If you'd like to be introduced to the team at Real Estate Credit Investments (RECI), get in touch.

Request a meeting
Download the full report