Hardman & Co has carried out several assessments of the REITs sector in the past; in 2024, we looked at whether they represented fair value in terms of their share prices compared with the average discount to NAV at which share prices traded over several historical cycles. We concluded, at that point, that REITs were trading at very close to the historical, long-run average but that the macroeconomic momentum was not strong enough to encourage us to view prospects for REIT share price performance positively. Since then, the share prices of many REITs have fallen in absolute and relative terms.
The trigger to our change in stance to a significantly more positive one is the recent turmoil in markets – particularly the sharp moves in US Treasury (bonds) in the immediate wake of President Trump’s global trade tariffs announcement.
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