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In our initiation note, 'Making pearls out of oysters', we noted AGA mainly invests in Apax PE funds. They acquire private companies, whose performance is then transformed by Apax’s global insights and operational expertise. On average, investee company EBITDA growth accelerates by 15%, and margins improve by 8%. They become more valuable, and on sale, their relative multiple is typically ca.30% higher than on purchase. Repeating this playbook in four sectors with resilient, secular growth has given investors market-beating returns since IPO. Exit uplifts prove a conservative NAV, and AGA’s strong outperformance through downturns show its resilience. The discount is 30%.

  • Apax’s added value: Portfolio companies’ value rise due to i) improving revenue growth (up 8%) with customer segmentation, new market expansion and digital marketing, and ii) improving efficiency using cloud technology, acquisitions and digitalisation. Apax brings options not available to standalone entities.
  • Other AGA positives include: i) a high-performing debt investment portfolio, giving capital and liquidity flexibility, ii) it is the highest-yielding listed PE investment company, attractive to both capital and income funds, and iii) Apax’s scale, experience, brand, deal access, global footprint and market focus.
  • Valuation: Adjusting for the debt portfolio, AGA’s discount to NAV (28%) widens to an above-peer (41%) on its PE portfolio alone. This (like peers) rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels. The NAV appears resilient and conservative, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous. The yield is 7.3%.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and over-commitment are issues, as they are across PE names. Residual positions in highly rated stocks, following 2020-21 IPOs, saw exposures to underperforming 2022 names. The Derived Investments portfolio model has liquidity and capital benefits but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at over 20% below peer ratings, accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a ca.10% premium, is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Derived Investments portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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