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AGA’s 1Q’25 results to 31 March (presentation here) reported i) PE portfolio EBITDA growth (LTM 16%, 2024 14%) was offset by adverse FX movements, while valuation multiples were flat overall, ii) net asset value (NAV) of €1.16bn (FY24 €1.23bn), equivalent to a NAV p/sh. of €2.38/£2.00; total NAV return p/sh was (2.5%) and 0.5% on a constant currency basis, iii) the latest Apax Fund (XI), an important value driver of future NAV growth saw faster-than-average LTM EBITDA growth (25%), iv) AGA deployed €52m on a look-through basis, v) AGA expects to receive distributions of €55m, and v) debt portfolio 2.5% constant currency return.

  • Tariff impact:  The 1Q report noted 90% of the PE portfolio was not expected to have any first-order impact (further 7% “limited” effects), with only minor exposure through select consumer and healthcare exposed assets. Second- and third-order tariff impacts remain uncertain and are too early to assess.
  • Recent investments: In May, AGA announced look-through investments of €14m in Norva24 (underground infrastructure maintenance services provider in Northern Europe) and €25m in Finastra’s TCM division (software supporting front-to-back trade lifecycle management, risk, compliance, and operations).
  • Valuation: AGA’s discount to NAV (42%) is above peers (5%-32% discount range). Apax Funds continue to see exit uplifts, and the NAV is resilient to economic downturns, which, combined with the value creation through Apax’s hidden gems strategy, make the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and over-commitment are sector issues. Residual risk on the listed positions is just 2% of NAV. The Debt portfolio generates additional returns and income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered long-term, market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (24%), accelerating their EBITDA growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium (8%) to those same peers, is the playbook; Apax’s “mining the hidden gems” strategy, which has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.

 

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