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AGA was transparent that 2024 was a disappointing year.  In our note, Jam yesterday, and tomorrow, but not today, we noted that problems in healthcare (no longer a core sector), and one portfolio company in particular, meant the strong average investee company EBITDA growth did not fuel NAV growth. However, the detail in the 2024 results bodes well, with i) investee companies delivering mid-teens EBITDA growth, and ii) the stock of 2025 exit-able businesses rising at a time of increased demand (with potential NAV growth from increasing exit uplifts). Long-term returns should be driven by the multiple value-creation options, generated with accelerating new investment.

  • Jam 2025-26: In our view, near-term growth in NAV will be fuelled by operational performance and a return to more normal exit activity, with the associated uplifts on exit. Tariff-related concerns may drag on deal sentiment for some months, but AGA has a growing stock of businesses ready for exit.
  • Jam beyond that: Our previous notes detail how Apax’s hidden gems strategy leads to investment in companies generating superior, long-term, through-cycle, EBITDA growth. Investment in 2024 (€166m) is nearly twice 2023 and calls of €205m are expected in 2025, building a deep, broad pool for value creation.
  • Valuation: AGA’s discount to NAV (42%) is above peers (6%-32% discount range). Apax Funds continue to see exit uplifts, and the NAV is resilient to economic downturns, which, combined with the value creation through Apax’s hidden gems strategy, make the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and over-commitment are sector issues. Residual risk on the listed positions is just 2% of NAV. The Debt portfolio generates additional returns and income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered long-term, market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (24%), accelerating their EBITDA growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium (8%) to those same peers, is the playbook; Apax’s “mining the hidden gems” strategy, which has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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