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Our latest report, AGA passed inflexion point with deal activity rising, noted that Apax Funds appear to have turned the corner, with both exit and investment activity steadily rebuilding to more normal levels. The forecast growth in 2025 exits reflects the stock of exit-able businesses rebuilding, just at the time when market demand is returning. It should assist i) NAV growth, with a greater correlation between EBITDA growth and NAV growth, ii) cashflows, iii) sentiment, and iv) as a result, the discount to NAV. In our view, the growing investments, with Apax’s operational improvements, are the key drivers to long-term outperformance. Results are due 4 March.

  • Dec’24E NAV: AGA estimates its NAV, as at 31 December, to be ca.€1,227m (FY’23 adjusted NAV2: ca.€1,288m). This translates to an estimated NAV p/sh of €2.51/£2.08p. The estimated total NAV return in FY’24 was 0.8% (-3.0% const. ccy.), with estimated 4Q total NAV return of 2.6% (-1.8% const. ccy.).
  • Appointment of joint broker: AGA has been increasingly active in its IR engagement. The latest development was the appointment of Investec Bank plc as joint corporate broker alongside Jefferies International Limited, its existing corporate broker, with effect from 7 February 2025.
  • Valuation: AGA’s discount to NAV (36%) is at the upper end of the peers’ range (4% to 33% discount) and rises further by excluding the MTM of the Debt portfolio. Apax Funds overall continue to see exit uplifts, and the NAV is resilient to economic downturns, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and overcommitment are sector issues. A single investee company writedown, in 2024, reminds investors of the potential volatility in PE returns. The Debt portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (24%), accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium to those same peers (11% premium), is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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