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AGA announced its estimated end-2023 NAV (€2.62/£2.27 p/sh) on 8 February. In the year, portfolio income and gains were largely offset by dividends and the adverse FX. The key messages from the 5 March results are i) continued superior revenue and EBITDA growth (hedging and falling leverage protecting earnings), ii) unique franchise delivering deals, iii) 20% exit uplifts, evidencing a conservative NAV, and iv) diversification benefit of the unique Debt Investments portfolio (14.4% 2023 constant currency return). AGA has a balanced capital allocation policy, giving shareholders both income (via 5% of NAV in dividends) and growth (through ongoing investment).

  • Successful strategy: Apax’s strategy of “mining hidden gems” by focusing on high-quality subsectors, identifying companies that have the potential to improve, and buying at a discount and then executing operational improvements to sell at a premium has again delivered returns, despite the challenging market.
  • Value added: Despite a slowdown in revenue growth (still an impressive 12%), margins have improved, with EBITDA growth broadly stable at 18%. The margin improvement reflects the broad range of organic and inorganic levers Apax has to grow earnings. The 2023 margin improvement is in line with historical levels.
  • Valuation: AGA’s discount to NAV (36%) is at the upper-end of the peers’ range (4%-34%) and rises further, excluding the Debt Investments at their market value. Apax Funds continue to see exit uplifts, and the NAV is resilient to economic downturns, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and overcommitment are sector issues. Residual positions in highly rated stocks, following 2020-21 IPOs, saw exposures to underperforming 2022 names, recognising that value was extracted on the IPOs. The Debt portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (24%), accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium to those same peers (11% premium), is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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