×

In previous notes we have reviewed why we believe RECI has procedures and practices that limit downside losses to help ensure the resilience of the NAV. In our most recent note, Portfolio management to optimise risk/reward, we explored how portfolio management helps optimise risk/reward with a dynamic approach to bond portfolio allocation, leverage, top 10 concentrations, geographical sectors, and duration. RECI’s portfolio is actively managed to the latest market opportunities, with an average loan life of 1.5 years, which is likely to be shortened further by early repayments. RECI’s NAV performance was recognised in the recent Citywire award.

  • Buybacks: RECI bought back 800k shares at 124.25p on 17 Jan, 300k at 125p on 26 Jan, and 500k at 129.5p on 6 Dec. The current programme (31 Aug’23) is for up to £5m and expires on 31 Mar’24. Shares are held in Treasury but carry no voting rights. This will limit re-issue costs (which we do not expect to occur below prevailing NAV).
  • Dec’23 factsheet: The underlying NAV fell 0.9p, with recurring interest income (1.0p) offset by MTM falls (1.6p) driven primarily by one legacy Paris asset. Cash was £12m, and gross leverage £60m. The book has 34 positions (28 loans, portfolio value £366m, and 6 bonds, fair value £7.6m. The weighted average LTV is 60.7%, and the yield is 10.2%.
  • Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, RECI traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount; currently, it trades at a well-above-average 15% discount. RECI is paying an annualised 12p dividend, generating a yield of 9.8%, which we expect to be covered by recurring net interest income.
  • Risks: Any lender is exposed to credit risks. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default. As noted, its average LTV is 60.7%, and most loans are senior-secured, providing a downside cushion. Some assets are illiquid. In the short term, investor sentiment could be an issue.
  • Investment summary: RECI generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Management has demonstrated its confidence in its sustainability. Bond pricing includes a discount, reflecting uncertainty, which should unwind when conditions normalise. Market wide, credit risk is currently above average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers, to date, have injected further equity into deals. An up to £5m share buyback programme was announced on 31 August 2023 with 1.3m shares bought back to date.
Download the full report

Request a meeting

If you'd like to be introduced to the team at Real Estate Credit Investments (RECI), get in touch.

Request a meeting
Download the full report