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In our note, Outperformance by adding value to companies, we highlighted AGA’s core strengths. These have continued into 1Q’23 where the quarterly announcement and presentation highlighted i) continued good operating performance across the portfolio with LTM EBITDA growth of 15.6%, despite the challenging and volatile market backdrop, ii) the largest driver of total NAV return continues to be earnings growth from the PE portfolio companies, partly offset by currency headwinds, iii) two new investments and two exits in the period at an average uplift of 25%, giving confidence in the realism of the current NAV, and iv) the Derived Debt portfolio delivered a total return of 2.8% in the quarter. AGA’s CM day is on 27 June at 3pm.

  • Outperformance is driven by: i) long-term compounding returns from chosen PE investments sectors, ii) diversification by sector, geography, and vintage, iii) investment strategy well suited to generate alpha by identifying under-optimised businesses and adding value to them post-acquisition.
  • Other 1Q’23 highlights: i) the EV/EBITDA ratio was 17.0x (end’22 17.2x), in line with the underlying average for 2017-21 (the resulting PEG ratio is just 1.1x); ii) the dividend yield of 6.9% makes AGA attractive, we believe, to both capital and income funds; iii) the debt/EBITDA ratio was 4.7x; and iv) over-commitment remains modest.
  • Valuation: Listed holdings and Derived Investments mean that ca.40% of Apax’s portfolio is marked to market. Adjusting for the debt portfolio at par, AGA’s discount to NAV of 25% rises to 39%, giving a PE portfolio well above that of its direct peers (18%-34%). The NAV appears resilient to slowdowns. The 2023E yield is 8.1%.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and over-commitment are sector issues. Residual positions in highly rated stocks, following 2020-21 IPOs, saw exposures to underperforming 2022 names, recognising that value was extracted on the IPOs. The Derived Investments portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at over 20% below peer ratings, accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated businesses at a ca.10% premium, is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Derived Investments portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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