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AGA reported its NAV, along with the performance of the APAX funds, on 8 February. The estimated adjusted NAV (31 December 2023) was ca.€1,288m (FY’22 ca.€1,299m) or €2.62/£2.27 per share. Over the year, income from the portfolio and gains were largely offset by ca.€65m paid in dividends and the impact of FX due to the EUR strengthening against the USD. The FY’23 total adjusted NAV return was 4.1% (6.1% constant currency) with 4Q total return of 1.9% (4.5% constant currency). The 4Q acceleration is encouraging, and in line with the trends in our note, “Hidden Gems” strategy: green shoots into live deals”. The detailed results due are on 5 March.

  • Successful strategy: In our view, Apax’s recent new investment acceleration has been materially driven by its unique position and strategy. Focus is on improving the operational performance of investments, the mid-market, secular-growth, resilient sectors, and exploiting its scale, experience, brand and global offices.
  • WGSN acquisition: AGA announced on 2 February it was investing, on a look-through basis, ca.€21.5m in WGSN, the consumer trend forecaster. Revenue growth, pre-acquisition was 8% CAGR 2016-22. APAX’s experience in the data and information space, should help enhance and expand the product range.
  • Valuation: Listed holdings and debt mean that ca.25% of Apax’s portfolio is marked to market. Adjusting for the debt portfolio at par, AGA’s discount to NAV (32%) rises to 41%, well above the peers’ range (13%-30%) on its PE portfolio alone. The NAV appears resilient, making the discount absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle, valuation and overcommitment are sector issues. Residual positions in highly rated stocks, following 2020-21 IPOs, saw exposures to underperforming 2022 names, recognising that value was extracted on the IPOs. The Debt portfolio generates income towards dividends, and has liquidity/capital benefits, but complicates the story.
  • Investment summary: Apax has delivered market-beating returns by selecting businesses that it can transform post-acquisition. Buying these companies at a discount to peers (ca.20%), accelerating their revenue growth and improving their margins, and then selling the reinvigorated business at a premium to those same peers (ca.10% premium), is the playbook that has been repeated again and again. Investments are focused in sectors with structural growth and resilience. Capital flexibility is enhanced by the Debt portfolio. The discount is the “icing on the cake”.
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