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In our latest report, 2024: short-term noise over long-term growth, we noted that, like many in the PE space, NBPE’s 2024 total $ NAV return (1.5%) was below the five-year average (12% to end-Apr’25), driven by falling valuations of listed holdings and forex. Over five years to end-May 2025 (see slide 8), NBPE has delivered i) a 17.5% gross IRR on direct investments, ii) 2.2x multiple of cost on realisations, iii) 30.6% average exit uplift to carrying value (inc. the strong 2021). These metrics, and the 2024 12% average EBITDA growth, give investors a good view of NBPE’s long-term potential. NBPE provides regular factsheet and presentation updates available here.

  • Medium-term performance: Over five years to end-April 2025, NBPE has delivered i) a 17% gross IRR on direct investments, ii) 2.3x multiple of cost on realisations, iii) 32.5% average exit uplift to carrying value (inc. the strong 2021). These results, and the EBITDA growth, give investors a good view of NBPE.
  • Capital returns: NBPE has continued its buyback programme in July, being active on nine days. It also announced an unchanged $0.47 per share interim dividend. The payout (3.5% NAV) remains ahead of the stated (policy minimum 3% NAV) and has been maintained at $0.47 twice yearly since 2022.
  • Valuation: The 24% discount is in line with direct peers (average 23% exc. HGT). It rose sharply in 2022, to well above historical levels (10%-15%). We detail in our thematic notes what may lead to a rerating back to these levels. The discount appears to be absolutely and relatively anomalous.
  • Risks: Sentiment to costs, the cycle (including higher-for-longer interest rates), modest residual listed holdings following 2020-21 IPOs, the duration of the discount and valuation are the key issues for NBPE, as they are across the whole listed PE sector. However, they are sentiment issues, and do not reflect reality, as we see it. The benefits of the current strategy may not be fully appreciated.
  • Investment summary: NBPE is the most focused listed vehicle in the low-cost, attractive co-investment subsector of the long-term, market-beating PE sector. The company and PE manager selection have proved resilient in downturns, and continued premiums on exit should give investors comfort in the NAV. Its portfolio is diversified by name, sector, PE manager and geographically, but has enough concentration for individual investments to add value. The discount is anomalous with long-term, market-beating returns.
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